Expired News - No relief in sight for Fort McMurray, steady rain 'unlikely' - The Weather Network
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After record-shattering heat across Alberta and Saskatchewan, a significant pattern change is forecast for the region for much of next week, which will return temperatures to near seasonal values.

No relief in sight for Fort McMurray, steady rain 'unlikely'


Brett Soderholm
Meteorologist

Saturday, May 7, 2016, 9:18 AM - After record-shattering heat across Alberta and Saskatchewan, a significant pattern change is forecast for the region for much of next week, which will return temperatures to near seasonal values.


LIVE ON LOCATION: Storm Hunter Mark Robinson and reporter Deb Matejicka are live on location covering the intensifying scene near Fort McMurray, Alta. Tune in to TV and check online and mobile often for live reports and updates.


As multiple areas in Alberta are presently under a critical alert for the threat of wildfires – most notably the area in and around Fort McMurray – cooler temperatures may come as welcome news.

However, this cool down is not presently expected to bring with it the beneficial rains that this region needs.

More hot days to come before the cool down

To further complicate matters, yet another period of hot and mostly dry weather is forecast for the region this weekend as another ridge builds over Western Canada.

The above image, courtesy of WeatherBell, shows the Canadian model’s forecast temperature anomaly – the number of degrees above or below the average for this time of year – for the air roughly 1.5 km above sea level between Saturday and Sunday.

Here, we see a clear signature of anomalously warm air situated above B.C. and the western Prairies (~ 8-12˚C above the mean), which corresponds to temperatures between 25˚C and 30˚C at the surface.

Using the same forecast model, the image below depicts the forecast temperature anomaly two days later, corresponding to next Wednesday:

Here, the air temperature 1.5 km above sea level over the Prairies is forecast to be 3-6˚C below the mean for this time of year. This comes as a direct result of a strong ridge building over Alaska, which allows cooler air to flow from the northwest down onto the Prairies.

While certainly noticeably cooler, keep in mind that this will still correspond to temperatures around 15˚C at the surface on average – which is near or just below seasonal for this time of year.



So where’s the rain?

Despite the cooler temperatures from this atmospheric set-up, widespread rainfall across the region is looking unlikely during the next week.

This is not to say it will be completely dry, however. Despite model disagreement, periods of rain can be expected next week that will provide at least some regional relief.

The above image, for example, shows the total forecast rainfall accumulation throughout May 7-11, 2016, according to the most recent run of the Canadian model.


FORT MCMURRAY FIRE COVERAGE: 


Although there is a huge margin for error pertaining to exact accumulation totals, this map highlights that the heaviest rain is forecast to fall over extreme northwestern Alberta, as well as in the Foothills. Meanwhile for around Fort McMurray, the area the needs it most, only a few millimetres are presently forecast during the next week.

So while it will certainly feel cooler across Alberta and Saskatchewan next week, it does not look as though Mother Nature will be able to significantly reduce the wildfire risk during the next week on her own.

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