UN report sees 'down-payment on new era of climate ambition'

Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Christiana Figueres, discusses the latest report leading up to December's important climate conference. Credit: UN Climate Action, @UNFCCC

Friday, October 30, 2015, 6:01 PM - Is the world finally coming together to halt dangerous climate change? According to the UN's latest report, there's still room for improvement, but we're definitely off to a serious start.

Taking a close look at pledges submitted by over 140 countries around the world, which outline the commitments made by those nations for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a new report released today by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat is revealing some disappointment, but also cautious optimism.

The report only includes those "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" (INDCs) submitted by October 1, 2015, thus commitments from three-quarters of the Parties to the UNFCCC - 147 INDCs total, from 119 parties (one of which being the 28-member European Union). More INDCs have been submitted since the October 1 cutoff, and more are expected before the start of the conference on November 30, however as of now, the existing pledges only cover roughly 86 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

How will these commitments affect future emissions and thus global temperatures?

Based on the report's analysis, the current INDCs will reduce global emissions per capita by up to 9 per cent by the year 2030, compared to 1990 levels.

Potential reductions in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, based on current INDCs, from the projected 24 per cent growth rate forecast by 2030. Credit: UNFCCC

While this will not get us to the goal of limiting warming to just 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, if nations carry through on their pledges, it will have a significant effect on global warming, preventing the very worst scenarios from playing out in our future.

"The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100," said Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, in a press release on Friday. "By no means enough, but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs."

Furthermore, even with just 75 per cent of INDCs submitted, their cumulative coverage already exceeds the expectations of some. In September, The Guardian reported that sources with the UK government suggested that, even after 100 per cent of INDCs were submitted and accounted for, they would still only cover a total of 85 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Also, according to the UNFCCC, the 86 per cent coverage so far is nearly four times higher than the commitments made during the 2008-2012 period of Kyoto Protocol.

As the remaining national pledges are received and added, the total may still fall short of covering 100 per cent of emissions, however the progress so far shows that nations taking part in this new agreement are serious about taking action.

"These INDCs – or national climate action plans – represent a clear and determined down-payment on a new era of climate ambition from the global community of nations," Figueres said in the statement. "Governments from all corners of the Earth have signalled through their INDCs that they are determined to play their part according to their national circumstances and capabilities."

"Fully implemented these plans together begin to make a significant dent in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions: as a floor they provide a foundation upon which ever higher ambition can be built," she added. "I am confident that these INDCs are not the final word in what countries are ready to do and achieve over time–the journey to a climate safe-future is underway and the Paris agreement to be inked in Paris can confirm, and catalyze that transition."

Source: UN Climate Change Newsroom | UNFCCC (pdf)

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