Boxing Day blizzard to batter parts of Central Canada

Wednesday, December 21, 2016, 8:00 PM - A classic fall-like storm is expected for the first official week of winter, go figure.

This storm will bring a wide variety of weather, including blizzard conditions, freezing rain, strong winds and double digit temperatures. This system will have a major impact on Christmas Day and Boxing Day travel across a large part of Central Canada.

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The images below are from forecast models and they were specifically selected to roughly illustrate how we think this storm will evolve.  However, since we are still several days out from the storm, one should not focus on the details of the timing just yet or the exact placement where transitions in precipitation type will occur.

Starting with Christmas

On Christmas morning (shown below), the area of low pressure will be developing well south of the border over Colorado, but we expect light to moderate snow to have already spread across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.

During Christmas afternoon and evening, the snow will become heavier across southern Manitoba and spread east into northwestern Ontario. By evening (shown below), snow and gusty winds are expected across this region, including Winnipeg and Thunder Bay, and these conditions are expected to continue through Christmas night.

Boxing Day Outlook

For Boxing Day morning, expect heavy snow and strong winds with the potential for blizzard conditions for parts of southeastern Manitoba and northern Ontario.

There is still some uncertainty in the exact track that this storm will take and that will be critical for whether locations near the north shore of Lake Superior, including Thunder Bay, will see a transition over to rain for a while.

Southern Ontario Outlook

Meanwhile, rain will be spreading across southern Ontario early on Boxing Day. However, this will likely start as a few hours of freezing rain, especially north and northeast of London, including much of the Greater Toronto Area. Several hours of ice pellets and freezing rain are also expected east of Georgian Bay, Lake Superior and across the Nickel Belt.

The threat for a more extended period of ice pellets and freezing rain will increase further to the east, including the Ottawa Valley. However, the warmer air will eventually win out across most of the region, with ice changing over to rain across most of southern and central Ontario Monday afternoon or evening.

During Monday afternoon, temperatures will reach into the double digits across southwestern Ontario and Niagara. During the evening these balmy temperatures will reach parts of the Greater Toronto Area. 

However, the warm-up will be short lived as a cold front will sweep across the region late Monday night or Tuesday morning, accompanied by a period of rain and strong winds. This will bring a return to more seasonal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with some lake-effect snow showers.

Snowfall Totals

While much of the precipitation will fall as rain across southern Ontario, heavy snow is expected across parts of southern Manitoba and northern Ontario. Widespread accumulations of 20-40 cm are likely, but there is still uncertainty as to exactly where the band of heaviest snow will occur.

Travel along the Trans-Canada Highway through this region will be highly impacted during Christmas through Boxing Day. In addition, freezing rain could have a significant impact on travel for several hours on Monday across parts of southern, central and eastern Ontario.

If you live in this area or if you have travel plans through this region, please be sure to check back for updates.