Ticks and climate change: Future of Lyme disease in Canada
Digital Reporter
Thursday, June 8, 2017, 7:50 PM - A new study out of St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia shows how far Lyme disease in Eastern Canada could spread over the next 50 years. Spoiler alert, it doesn't look good.
Through the use of climate change data a team of graduate students were able to map the path of the Lyme disease carrying tick and future potential impacts.
According to the new paper published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, ticks carrying Lyme disease could spread to all of Nova Scotia by 2040, with the geographic range expanding into Newfoundland and Labrador and northern Ontario by 2070.
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Temperature is a key determinant when evaluating the survival of deer tick populations, which are the most common vectors of the Lyme disease bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, according to a St. Francis Xavier University press release.
"As a result of climate change, additional areas in Canada may become climatically suitable for tick establishment. Furthermore, areas in Canada that are already experiencing reproducing deer tick populations may experience an increase in tick abundance," the release reads. "This information suggests that climate change may lead to both new and increased risk of Lyme disease across Canada."
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The scientists used General Circulation Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios (called Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) to show the current distribution and future emergence of the deer tick.
"Each RCP relates to the magnitude of climate change associated with a specific greenhouse gas emission trajectory resulting from varying technological, demographic, economic, policy, emission and land-use futures," the release highlights. "Using a range of emission scenarios and climate models simulations allowed for deer tick propagation estimates to be representative of a broad range of future climate outcomes."
The researchers say that the Lyme disease risk is likely to rise in Canada, even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2oC is achieved.
Long Point, Ontario on the north shore of Lake Erie was identified in the 1990s as the country's first endemic area for Lyme. Since then, more and more endemic regions have been determined, with the number of human cases of Lyme disease rising substantially, according to the report.
This new research highlights the need for public health officials to understand the increased risk and to further educate themselves on surveillance, prevention, treatment and control of the disease, the press release reads.
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"Vulnerability of Canadian populations to Lyme disease will continue to evolve over the coming century, and it is likely that the success of public health's response to Lyme disease will depend on sustained adaptation efforts."
SOURCE: Report | St. Francis Xavier University release
