Eyes on 'homebrew' tropical storm as Florida deals with rain
Meteorologist
Monday, May 14, 2018, 8:29 AM - Early wet season rains are on their way to the Sunshine State in a big way this week. While we don't typically expect the rainy season to pick up until the end of May or early June, not much about this spring has been typical, and Florida is getting in on the trend with up to 20 cm of rain possible for some parts of the south this week.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are also keeping an eye on the area of low pressure that will be helping to fuel this onslaught of rain. We're still a few weeks from the official start of hurricane season, but with temperatures in the Gulf flirting with the 26 degree Celsius mark, it's not out of the question that a low could take on tropical characteristics at this point as a "homebrew" tropical storm.
(Related: The time to prepare is now - Emergency Preparedness)
Whether or not this low becomes a tropical or sub-tropical storm, it will definitely serve to enhance rainfall over the Southeast this week. We take a closer look at what that means for Florida, below.
Weather Highlights
- As of Monday morning, NHC gives 30 per cent chance of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico through the next 48 hours, 40 per cent through 5 days
- Regardless of any potential tropical development, periods of very heavy rain on the way to Florida, particularly South Florida, this week
- Up to 8 inches (20 cm) total rainfall possible from Everglades through Central Florida through late week
- Localized flooding is possible, with flash flooding risk during thunderstorms
- Slight risk of severe thunderstorms for peninsula south of Ocala through at least midweek
Watch below: Rainy days in the Sunshine State
Early start to the wet season?
The low pressure center moving north from the central Caribbean - the one the NHC is watching for potential tropical development - will work in concert with high pressure off the Atlantic coast to funnel significant moisture up over the Southeast this week, with Florida taking the brunt of it. On Monday, much of the peninsula can expect gray and rainy skies - a pattern that will be very familiar by the end of the week.
By the end of the day Monday, parts of South Florida can expect up to 10 cm of rainfall, with the triangle from Okeechobee to West Palm Beach to Vero Beach looking to see the highest accumulations.
That's not the end of the rain by any stretch, however, with another 5 to 10 cm expected across a wide portion of the state by Friday, making for a possible total of more than 20 cm in some parts of the south. That's nearly all of the rain South Florida usually sees in the entire month of June - the second rainiest month of the year for the region.
Good news for fire, drought
The 2018 Winter Season started off wet for Northeast and most of Central Florida, with much of those regions either at or above average for the month of January. South Florida was 1 to 3 inches (2 to 7 cm) below average, and parts of North Florida were as much as 5 inches (12 cm) below average for the month.
Aside from January and the first few days in February, there hasn’t been any significant rainfall (rainfall averaging at or above 0.5 cm) at all this year for the Sunshine State. For the year, aside from a small strip of the Panhandle, rainfall in the state of Florida is around 15 cm below average. The largest deficit is 20 cm below average, in an area of the Big Bend that includes Tallahassee, northern Jefferson and western Madison Counties.
The extremely dry conditions have translated into an above normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential in Peninsular Florida for both the months of April and May. With the onset of the wet season, this will decrease to a normal Fire Potential in June, with below normal Fire Potential in South Florida.
Likewise, the growing drought conditions across South Florida may be cut off at the knees by this early influx of moisture from the Caribbean, although it is also worth noting that the dry ground will be, at least initially, slow to absorb the heavy rainfall, and that could lead to some significant run-off and local flooding issues.
Stay with us here at The Weather Network as we track this early start to the rainy season - and the potential for tropical developments - across Florida.
With files from meteorologist Jaclyn Whittal
