Hottest day of the month for the GTA

Tuesday, July 22, 2014, 11:04 AM - Today will be the hottest day of the month across the Greatest Toronto Area as the temperature should reach at least 30ºC at Pearson for the first time during July.

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Looking ahead at the pattern for rest of the month, it is unlikely that we will see the temperature reach 30 again in July.

A cold front will cross southern Ontario early on Wednesday with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning commute. However, we do not expect severe weather with the front and not everyone will even see significant rain as a broken line of showers and thunderstorms crosses southern Ontario.

With the front coming through early in the day, the high temperature on Wednesday will be during the morning, and then temperatures will hold steady or slowly fall during the afternoon with a gusty north wind.

Thursday will bring a return to sunshine and while temperatures will be below seasonal, it will not be as cold as what we saw during the middle of last week.

We will continue our string of pleasant Friday’s this week with a mixture of sun and clouds and temperatures returning to seasonal

The timing of our next system makes for a challenging weekend forecast. Saturday will start out great with sunshine and seasonal temperatures. However, we will see clouds increase during the day with the threat for showers and thunderstorms late in the day or overnight. However, there are models which hold the rain off until later on Sunday, so we will fine tune the foreast as we get closer to the weekend.

Sunday looks similar to last Sunday with a mixture of sun and clouds and the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the day should not be a washout.

Early next week, a slow moving upper level low will bring a few rounds of showers and cooler temperatures. Both Monday and Tuesday will be changeable days with showers at times, but the sun will make a few appearances as well.

The below seasonal temperature pattern is expected to continue into the Civic Day Long weekend. The image below shows a model forecast for July 27, 2014 – August 5, 2014. Regions with various shades of green are forecast to be 3 to 5 degrees C below seasonal while the various shades of blue indicate temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees C below seasonal. Southern Ontario, including the GTA are included in the region where temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees below what we typically see during late July and early August.

However, while the map looks ominous (too reminiscent of the pattern that we saw last winter), we expect that most of the time the weather will be quite enjoyable. Our average high during this period is 27 C, so this forecast indicates high temperatures will average out in the mid-20s.

This forecast does include the Civic Day long weekend, but it is too early to have high confidence in the weather details of those specific days. It certainly is possible to have a couple of days of warm weather in a pattern that is cool overall, so please check back for updates as the long weekend approaches.